CAR Heads to the Polls as President Pursues a Third Term

On Sunday, the Central African Republic will undertake a crucial series of four votes, encompassing the presidential race, parliament, and local offices.

A Competitive Race for the Presidency

Seven candidates are competing for the presidency, including former prime ministers Anicet Georges Dologuélé and Henri-Marie Dondra. The two were given approval to run by the constitutional court after being initially barred. Dologuélé finished second in the last two elections, while Dondra briefly served under the incumbent.

Challengers' Strategy and Public Discontent

The challengers aims to capitalize on widespread frustration in a country where conflict remains a daily reality. Over half a million people are internally displaced, with a similar number living as refugees in bordering states.

"This is an chance to commend the remarkable recovery of the nation," said a UN regional official, though he added that obstacles persist.

Touadéra's Expected Victory

Despite the challenges, President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, a former mathematics professor, is largely predicted to extend his run. He first entered politics in 2008 when named prime minister, serving until a rebel coalition overthrew the government in 2013, sparking a sectarian conflict.

After a turbulent three-year interim, his reputation for neutrality from the main militias powered his second-round victory in 2016.

Security Concerns and Voting Challenges

There are fears that logistical problems and insecurity could disrupt the electoral process, particularly in the countryside. The UN peacekeeping mission, Minusca, is providing security and logistical support that the country's weak systems is unable to provide.

Additional problems include the electoral roll being made available only digitally, a significant barrier in a country with scarce online access. These irregularities have led to an opposition boycott and could, according to observers, "exclude many of the electorate."

Implications of Extended Rule

Many citizens worry that another term for Touadéra—made possible by a 2023 constitutional referendum that scrapped term limits and lengthened mandates—would mean greater influence for foreign actors.

The president has put faith in the private military group Wagner for his protection, and even after its founder's death, has resisted calls to fold its fighters into a new structure. Meanwhile, Rwanda has pursued a different approach, focusing on business ventures within CAR.

Claims of National Disposal

Allegations have claimed the government removed its own soldiers from a World Bank-funded training centre to make way for a Rwandan livestock operation. A pro-opposition commentary accused the leadership of being "determined to sell off the country piece by piece."

Amid a recent peace accord with armed factions offering a glimmer of calm, the vote proceeds under a cloud of doubt and geopolitical rivalry.

Dana Case
Dana Case

Elara Vance is a seasoned sports analyst with over a decade of experience in betting markets, specializing in statistical modeling and risk management.