Day-to-Day Homicides in the nation Decline 37% Under the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Government Data

The mean count of daily murders monthly in the country has decreased by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by recent administrative data. Nevertheless, security specialists have cautioned that murder figures might not point to enhanced national security.

Marked Decline in Per-Day Averages

There was an average of almost 55 killings a day in November compared with roughly 87 when Sheinbaum took the leadership in September of last year. This announcement was shared by the chief of the country’s federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The result in killings that we have seen over these months is extremely notable,” Sheinbaum said, noting that in November the least figure of homicides were registered for any single November in the last decade.

Recent Context and Official Strategy

Violent drug cartel internal conflicts, coupled with the government’s highly military efforts to combat the trafficking organizations, have led to Mexico’s murder numbers rise sharply in the past few years. The rate reached a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the country’s official data agency.

That meant Mexico a homicide figure over four times higher than the United States. From that point, killings have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 last year. Sheinbaum has attributed her national security plan for an seemingly steeper decline in killings in the current year.

At a news briefing in August, the Mexican leader stated: “We have a strategy, we have monitoring of the strategy, and there is detailed tracking municipality by municipality in certain cases. The strategy functions. And we have to persist at it daily.”

The main components of Sheinbaum’s security strategy involve:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigation work.
• Greater cooperation between government agencies.

Analyst Caution and Data Limitations

Nevertheless, public safety researchers warned that focusing solely on murder numbers to assess the situation of peace was misleading. This is particularly true given the uptick in other criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“This would be very good news if this was a drop, but I think we must not just focus on the murder data and say: ‘Alright, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican organised crime. “I would be cautiously optimistic.”

According to the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall fell by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year relative to the same timeframe last year. But, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in some regions have risen by up to 200%.

“Data on homicides is not useful for gauging the reality of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the capacity or the inclination to correctly recognize and classify remains. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the capability to mask violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on month-to-month means of daily killings was also problematic because it could obscure days when there were notably spiking numbers of killings.

“Relying on the per-day mean makes surges of violence unseen,” he stated.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

Where the administration can highlight the effectiveness of its security strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Close to 40,000 suspects were arrested between October 2024 and November 2025 for major crimes, per official data. Over 20,000 weapons were seized and 311 tons of narcotics seized.

“Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s very in political terms profitable,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Frustration

Yet in spite of these efforts, Mexico is still plagued by high bloodshed, with a number of regions in the midst of cartel-driven violence. Last month there was a high-profile murder of a popular mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors assassinated in the past 12 months.

Weeks later, thousands of youth protested in Mexico City and across the country to voice their anger at graft and cartel violence.

“The government shares [data] in a manner to create a picture of safety. From a political standpoint it’s very effective, socially it’s extremely questionable,” the analyst remarked.