Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
